Research stay at GFZ Helmholtz-Zentrum für Geoforschung

Floods represent the most prevalent type of meteorological calamity globally, resulting in the highest average annualized economic losses compared to other natural hazards. Historical analyses suggest that while the adverse effects and repercussions of floods can be mitigated but the total eradication remains unattainable. Impact-based forecasting, which reconceptualizes forecasted hazard data into 'forecast impacts' across diverse scales, signifies a transformative approach that reconciles the disparity between hydro- meteorological forecasts and responsive measures undertaken by communities, emergency management organizations, and individuals. This methodology emphasizes 'What the weather will do' over 'What the weather will be,' thereby enhancing its practical utility.

In recognition of community requirements in addressing flood hazards and their impacts, my doctoral research will focus on Impact-based flood forecasting and risk management specifically within the Narmada River basin in India. The objective of this research is to establish a pioneering framework that prioritizes impact-based flood warning systems, with an aim to improve community responses against flood impacts.

The initial phase of research analysed the spatio-temporal characteristics of flooding in the Narmada River basin, considering climate variability and anthropogenic influences. Preliminary findings show that climatic variability and reservoir presence significantly impact flood characteristics, suggesting that traditional Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) could pose design risks under nonstationary conditions.

As a current Research Scholar at the Technical University of Dresden, Germany, I am engaged in assessing potential and developing a robust hydrological model, which is essential for the formulation of a hybrid modelling framework aimed at accurate and reliable flood quantification. Furthermore, my doctoral work will extend to forecasting the impacts of flooding on vulnerable entities within the Narmada River basin through the integration of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability assessments.

The overarching aim of my doctoral research is to bridge the gap between hazard identification and warning information, ultimately contributing to the development of an early warning system predicated on impact warnings, which would enhance community responsiveness to mitigation strategies. Moreover, this research aligns with Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 11 to ensure clean water and sanitation, reduce disaster fatalities, and decrease economic losses.